S&P Global expects Dubai's housing stock to grow 20% in two years, with apartments feeling it most

• Supply: about 20 per cent more homes within two years, concentrated in apartments.
• When: apartment handovers in 2027 and 2028 are the main pressure point.
• Where prices are most exposed: apartment segments bought mainly by investors. Some segments have already seen prices ease.
• Villas: expected to hold up better than apartments, because the pipeline of new apartments is much larger.
• Its assumption: regional disruption continues into 2027.

S&P describes the fall in home prices so far as moderate. It puts that down to more long-term buyers in the market, helped by visa reforms, along with stronger regulation and government support.

S&P rates four Dubai developers: Emaar, DAMAC, OMNIYAT and Sobha Realty.

It says all four hold large backlogs of sold homes still to be delivered, and that few buyers are behind on payments. Both points support their credit ratings.

Dubai residential sales, Q3 2026
Value	AED 72.6bn
Number of sales	about 34,000
Value against Q3 2025	down 47%
Number against Q3 2025	down 38%

Residential sales as cited in the report. Consultancy Cavendish Maxwell links part of the fall to a registration backlog clearing, which had lifted last year's figures. Our own count of all property types is in the Q3 analysis linked below.

The report also notes the new rules for off-plan mortgages, which cap the loan at 50 per cent of the home's value. The buyer pays at least half from their own funds.

Apartments and villas are not the same market. Most of the new supply is apartments. Anyone buying an apartment to rent out or resell should look hard at how many similar homes complete nearby in the same year. Our handover pages for 2027 and 2028 show what is due and where.

A long hold changes the picture. A forecast for the next two years matters most to buyers who plan to sell at handover. It matters less to someone buying a home to live in.

The developer still matters most. A large sales backlog and few late payers are signs a developer can fund construction. See what to check in Is off-plan property in Dubai safe?

Softer conditions tend to bring better terms. Longer payment plans and launch incentives are more common when sales slow. Current ones are on our offers and payment plans pages.

For the latest sales figures, see Dubai off-plan sales, Q3 2026 and Dubai off-plan prices hold. For homes with less new supply coming, see off-plan villas in Dubai.